#COVIDisAirborne: AI-Enabled Multiscale Computational Microscopy of Delta SARS-CoV-2 in a Respiratory Aerosol (preprint)

We seek to completely revise current models of airborne transmission of respiratory viruses by providing never-before-seen atomic- level views of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within a respiratory aerosol. Our work dramatically extends the capabilities of multiscale computational microscopy to address the significant gaps that exist in current experimental methods, which are limited in their ability to interrogate aerosols at the atomic/molecular level and thus obscure our understanding of airborne transmission. We demonstrate how our integrated data-driven platform provides a new way of exploring the composition, structure, and dynamics of aerosols and aerosolized viruses, while driving simulation method development along several important axes. We present a series of initial scientific discoveries for the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, noting that the full scientific impact of this work has yet to be realized.

Intelligent Resolution: Integrating Cryo-EM with AI-driven Multi-resolution Simulations to Observe the SARS-CoV-2 Replication-Transcription Machinery in Action (preprint)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) replication transcription complex (RTC) is a multi-domain protein responsible for replicating and transcribing the viral mRNA inside a human cell. Attacking RTC function with pharmaceutical compounds is a pathway to treating COVID-19. Conventional tools, e.g., cryo-electron microscopy and all-atom molecular dynamics (AAMD), do not provide sufficiently high resolution or timescale to capture important dynamics of this molecular machine. Consequently, we develop an innovative workflow that bridges the gap between these resolutions, using mesoscale fluctuating finite element analysis (FFEA) continuum simulations and a hierarchy of AI-methods that continually learn and infer features for maintaining consistency between AAMD and FFEA simulations. We leverage a multi-site distributed workflow manager to orchestrate AI, FFEA, and AAMD jobs, providing optimal resource utilization across HPC centers. Our study provides unprecedented access to study the SARS-CoV-2 RTC machinery, while providing general capability for AI-enabled multi-resolution simulations at scale.

Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil (preprint)

We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

COVID-19 Losses to the Real Estate Market: An Equity Analysis

This is the first paper to estimate the dollar impact of COVID-19 on the aggregate value of United States commercial real estate. With the compounding effects of telecommuting, social distancing, restrictions on commerce, and business closures, few sectors have been as hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic as commercial real estate. Analyzing traded REITs provides statistical estimates of the decline in United States commercial real estate values. Applying MacroRisk.com's commercial stock valuation models which use key economic factors to value equities, we evaluate the impact of economic changes on commercial real estate values. We find that real estate markets would have likely realized substantially greater declines but for the extreme monetary and fiscal policy pursued during the early months of the pandemic.

AI-Driven Multiscale Simulations Illuminate Mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Dynamics (preprint)

We develop a generalizable AI-driven workflow that leverages heterogeneous HPC resources to explore the time-dependent dynamics of molecular systems. We use this workflow to investigate the mechanisms of infectivity of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the main viral infection machinery. Our workflow enables more efficient investigation of spike dynamics in a variety of complex environments, including within a complete SARS-CoV-2 viral envelope simulation, which contains 305 million atoms and shows strong scaling on ORNL Summit using NAMD. We present several novel scientific discoveries, including the elucidation of the spikes full glycan shield, the role of spike glycans in modulating the infectivity of the virus, and the characterization of the flexible interactions between the spike and the human ACE2 receptor. We also demonstrate how AI can accelerate conformational sampling across different systems and pave the way for the future application of such methods to additional studies in SARS-CoV-2 and other molecular systems. ACM Reference FormatLorenzo Casalino1{dagger}, Abigail Dommer1{dagger}, Zied Gaieb1{dagger}, Emilia P. Barros1, Terra Sztain1, Surl-Hee Ahn1, Anda Trifan2,3, Alexander Brace2, Anthony Bogetti4, Heng Ma2, Hyungro Lee5, Matteo Turilli5, Syma Khalid6, Lillian Chong4, Carlos Simmerling7, David J. Hardy3, Julio D. C. Maia3, James C. Phillips3, Thorsten Kurth8, Abraham Stern8, Lei Huang9, John McCalpin9, Mahidhar Tatineni10, Tom Gibbs8, John E. Stone3, Shantenu Jha5, Arvind Ramanathan2*, Rommie E. Amaro1*. 2020. AI-Driven Multiscale Simulations Illuminate Mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Dynamics. In Supercomputing 20: International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage, and Analysis. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 14 pages. https://doi.org/finalDOI

CONTAIN: An open-source shipping container laboratory optimisedfor automated COVID-19 diagnostics (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged diagnostic systems globally. Expanding testing capabilities to conduct population-wide screening for COVID-19 requires innovation in diagnostic services at both the molecular and industrial scale. No report to-date has considered the complexity of laboratory infrastructure in conjunction with the available molecular assays to offer a standardised solution to testing. Here we present CONTAIN. A modular biosafety level 2+ laboratory optimised for automated RT-qPCR COVID-19 testing based on a standard 40ft shipping container. Using open-source liquid-handling robots and RNA extraction reagents we demonstrate a reproducible workflow for RT-qPCR COVID-19 testing. With five OT2 liquid handlers, a single CONTAIN unit reaches a maximum daily testing capacity of 2400 tests/day. We validate this workflow for automated RT-qPCR testing, using both synthetic SARS-CoV-2 samples and patient samples from a local NHS hospital. Finally, we discuss the suitability of CONTAIN and its flexibility in a range of diagnostic testing scenarios including high-density urban environments and mobile response units. Visual abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=143 SRC="FIGDIR/small/106625v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (44K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@18acad6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@10ae5f1org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7e34d3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1be3815_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG